Le 23 un événement proton s'est produit sur le Soleil. Il dure encore aujourd'hui. Il provient du groupe 1314 qui a émis une éruption de classe M1
Un orage géomagnétique est survenu le 24 il provient d'une CME émise le 22 octobre associé à un filament éruptif.
résumé du 22
Region 1314 (N29W93) produced a long duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z associated with a CME off the west limb that is not expected to be geoeffective. A disappearing filament was observed at approximately 22/0058Z.
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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1324 (N12W00) produced a C2 X-ray flare at 23/1147Z as well as a few other optical subflares. The region continues to slowly decay. New Region 1331 (N11W60) emerged on the disk.A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 23/1500Z. So far the observed peak flux was 13 pfu at 23/1535Z. The source of the event is believed to be yesterdays long-duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z in Region 1314 (N29, L=053).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. Regions 1324 (N12W00) and 1330 (N08E60) are the most likely source of flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected be mostly quiet becoming quiet to unsettled with a chance of active periods on 25 October. This activity is expected in response to the arrival of a CME that occurred at 22/0058Z in association with an eruptive filament. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end by 24 October.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 10/01/01 PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 156 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 122
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Voici ce que spaceweather écrit le 26 octobre http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=26&month=10&year=2011
A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (2:00 pm EDT). The impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma, and sparked an intense geomagnetic storm. As night fell over North America, auroras spilled across the Canadian border into the contiguous United States. A US Department of Defense satellite photographed the crossing:
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http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=25&month=10&year=2011
http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images2011/24oct11/shawn-malone3_strip.jpg
J'ai écrit que les taches de classe A sont les plus faibles. Ce ne doit pas être tout à fait exact car le groupe 1314 a été à l'origine de la dernière émission de CME... mais il est vrai (à mon avis) qu'il s'agirait davantage du long filament qui a duré longtemps. Je ne l'ai pas lu sur les forums, mais c'est toutefois mon opinion pour avoir déjà fait cette observation auparavant. Qui plus le rapport d'activité que j'ai recopié plus le précise bien.
le montage video de Kevin Gibeau VE3EN de solarcycle24 (solarham) il n'évoque pas le filament lui aussi, à mon avis c'est une erreur car l'éjection vient de là.
filament solaire proche du groupe 1314 photo prise le mardi 25 par Ron Cotrell sur solarham.com
Un orage géomagnétique est survenu le 24 il provient d'une CME émise le 22 octobre associé à un filament éruptif.
résumé du 22
Region 1314 (N29W93) produced a long duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z associated with a CME off the west limb that is not expected to be geoeffective. A disappearing filament was observed at approximately 22/0058Z.
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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1324 (N12W00) produced a C2 X-ray flare at 23/1147Z as well as a few other optical subflares. The region continues to slowly decay. New Region 1331 (N11W60) emerged on the disk.A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 23/1500Z. So far the observed peak flux was 13 pfu at 23/1535Z. The source of the event is believed to be yesterdays long-duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z in Region 1314 (N29, L=053).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. Regions 1324 (N12W00) and 1330 (N08E60) are the most likely source of flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected be mostly quiet becoming quiet to unsettled with a chance of active periods on 25 October. This activity is expected in response to the arrival of a CME that occurred at 22/0058Z in association with an eruptive filament. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end by 24 October.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 10/01/01 PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 156 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 122
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Voici ce que spaceweather écrit le 26 octobre http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=26&month=10&year=2011
A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (2:00 pm EDT). The impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma, and sparked an intense geomagnetic storm. As night fell over North America, auroras spilled across the Canadian border into the contiguous United States. A US Department of Defense satellite photographed the crossing:
"This shows the auroras on Oct. 25th at 0140 GMT," says Paul McCrone of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Monterey, California. He created the image using visual and infrared data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's F18 polar orbiter. DMSP satellites carry low light cameras for nightime monitoring of moonlit clouds, city lights and auroras. Some of the auroras recorded by the F18 on Oct. 25th were as bright as the city lights underneath.
This "big picture" from orbit makes sense of what happened next. The bright band swept south and, before the night was over, auroras were sighted in more than thirty US states: Alabama, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois, Nebraska, Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Maryland, New York, Montana, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Washington, Virginia, Texas, Arizona, Minnesota, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Oregon, Arkansas and California.
Many observers, especially in the deep south, commented on the pure red color of the lights they saw. These rare all-red auroras sometimes appear at low latitudes during intense geomagnetic storms. They occur some 300 to 500 km above Earth's surface and are not yet fully understood.
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http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=25&month=10&year=2011
http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images2011/24oct11/shawn-malone3_strip.jpg
J'ai écrit que les taches de classe A sont les plus faibles. Ce ne doit pas être tout à fait exact car le groupe 1314 a été à l'origine de la dernière émission de CME... mais il est vrai (à mon avis) qu'il s'agirait davantage du long filament qui a duré longtemps. Je ne l'ai pas lu sur les forums, mais c'est toutefois mon opinion pour avoir déjà fait cette observation auparavant. Qui plus le rapport d'activité que j'ai recopié plus le précise bien.
le montage video de Kevin Gibeau VE3EN de solarcycle24 (solarham) il n'évoque pas le filament lui aussi, à mon avis c'est une erreur car l'éjection vient de là.
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